EU Commission President von der Leyen is sticking to her plan to work with right-wing forces in the European Parliament. Despite the Krah scandal, the AfD remains stable in surveys. An expert is now giving an assessment of how Russia could pose a threat to the election. You can find all the votes and developments regarding the European elections here.

Monday, May 27, 2024, 7:27 a.m.: Shortly before the European elections, concerns about Russian influence are growing again: There are cyber attacks on institutions in EU countries, pro-Russian internet platforms are said to be spreading propaganda in the EU and there is even talk of paying money to European politicians . How big is the danger?

Lea Frühwirth researches the topic of election influence at the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) in Berlin. According to her, Russia has been attracting attention for years with illegitimate influence – for example through disinformation campaigns with fake media sites that are spread via advertisements and inauthentic accounts.

EU election as an expected target for attempts to influence

“The European Parliament elections at the beginning of June are an expected target for such attempts at influence,” she says. Typical examples include discrediting parties and politicians or sowing distrust in the legitimacy of the electoral process. Campaigns could also influence voters indirectly. Anyone who wants to undermine trust in democratic institutions can do so by suggesting inadequate protection for the population.

According to the expert, Russia doesn’t just interfere in elections. Such campaigns are more like background noise, says Frühwirth. On certain occasions or to further fuel a polarizing debate, this increases again.

The best example of this is the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The East StratCom Task Force, part of the EU’s diplomatic service, reports that disinformation cases targeting Ukraine account for more than 40 percent of all cases in its database.

It is often unclear who is behind disinformation

For example, a video circulating on social media in mid-March 2024 shows a tank driving through the landscape with a blue flag – which somewhat resembles the EU flag. This is supposedly in Russia near the Ukrainian border. As dpa fact checkers checked, the emblem on the flag in the video is reminiscent of the ring of stars on the EU banner – but actually belongs to the “Russian Freedom” legion, which is fighting on the side of Ukraine. It is not always possible to clearly determine who exactly such videos come from and who distributes them.

According to the experts of the East StratCom Task Force, campaigns on the Ukraine war aim, among other things, to undermine European support for aid to the attacked country with financial, military and humanitarian aid.

Cyber ​​attacks on the SPD

But Russian influence goes beyond disinformation campaigns. The Kremlin is repeatedly accused of being the mastermind of cyber attacks. “There can be various goals behind it, for example accessing data, weakening critical infrastructure or a communication effect,” explains researcher Frühwirth. Interventions in critical infrastructure would disrupt concrete processes, but should also demonstrate to the affected country and convey that the government is unable to protect its citizens.

In recent cyber attacks on the SPD and German companies in the logistics, armaments, aerospace and IT services sectors, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock clearly named Russia as the perpetrator. “Russian state hackers have attacked Germany in cyberspace,” said the Green politician in May. The federal government blames a unit of the Russian military intelligence service – APT28.

It’s not just Germany that is in Russia’s sights: According to the EU, other state institutions, agencies and facilities in member states, including Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia and Sweden, had previously been attacked by the same “threat actor”.

Pro-Russian platform is said to have paid money to European politicians

A particularly prominent example of possible Russian influence is the Voice of Europe platform – based in Prague. This is suspected of spreading pro-Russian propaganda in the EU and paying money to European politicians. Among other things, interviews with the AfD politician Petr Bystron and his party colleague Maximilian Krah appeared on the portal. The Czech newspaper “Denik N” reported at the beginning of April that money may have flowed in the Bystron case. The AfD member of the Bundestag has rejected this several times. Krah also denies having accepted money from the Voice of Europe environment.

As a result of this and other reporting, the public prosecutor’s office in Munich initiated so-called preliminary investigations in the Bystron case to check whether there was initial suspicion of criminal conduct involving bribery of members of parliament. According to dpa information, the investigations that have been initiated concern the allegations in connection with Voice of Europe.

EU blocks Voice of Europe

In the case of Voice of Europe, a broadcast ban in the EU was decided in mid-May. In addition to the platform, three Russian media outlets were also blocked across the EU. The fact that the broadcast ban now came as a result of a planned 14th sanctions package against Russia probably also has to do with concerns about influence before the European elections.

Researcher Frühwirth warns that attacks on the legitimacy of election results can also take place afterwards and cause lasting problems. “The end of the election campaign does not have to be the end of election-related attempts to influence.”

Sunday, May 26, 00:02: According to an Insa survey on the European elections, the AfD has not lost any voter support despite the recent turbulence. In the new survey for “Bild am Sonntag” it recorded 17 percent, the same value as in an Insa survey from April. The Union increased by one point to 30 percent. This was reported by “Bild am Sonntag”, for which the institute surveyed around 1,000 people online.

The SPD lost two points in the survey and is now at 14 percent. The Greens remain at 13 percent – the FDP remains at 4 percent. The left lost one point and reached 3 percent. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) received 7 percent in the survey. Free voters still account for 3 percent. The other parties would get 9 percent if elections were held this Sunday. 

The European elections are in Germany in about two weeks. The acute AfD crisis was triggered by an interview by leading candidate Maximilian Krah with the Italian newspaper “La Repubblica” and the “Financial Times”. Krah was asked about the National Socialist SS. Adolf Hitler’s so-called Schutzstaffel guarded and managed the concentration camps, among other things, and was largely responsible for war crimes. At the Nuremberg trials after the end of the Second World War, it was declared a criminal organization. Krah said in the interview: “I will never say that everyone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal.” The French Rassemblement National, among others, then distanced itself. The right-wing ID group in the European Parliament excluded all AfD members.

Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.

Saturday, May 25th, 3:32 p.m.: After heavy criticism, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has defended her plans for cooperation with right-wing forces in the European Parliament. In an interview with Deutschlandfunk on Saturday, the CDU politician said: “It’s about winning over the political forces that are so important for the majority in the middle.” You shouldn’t look at the groups in parliament, but at the individual MPs . “The criterion for me is that the MPs with whom we want to work, to whom we make an offer, are for Europe, for Ukraine, i.e. against Russia, and for the rule of law.”

In April, von der Leyen did not rule out cooperation with the right-wing conservative EKR faction, to which Italian Prime Minister Meloni’s party, the ultra-right Fratelli d’Italia, also belongs. 

On Thursday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz indirectly warned the Commission President against trying to secure another term in office with the help of right-wing extremists after the European elections on June 9th. Scholz said at a press conference that he was “very saddened by the ambiguity of some of the political statements we have recently heard.” His position is clear: “It will only be possible to establish a Commission Presidency that is based on the traditional parties. (…) Anything else would be a mistake for the future of Europe.”

Friday, May 24th, 8:43 p.m.: After the AfD was kicked out of the right-wing ID faction in the European Parliament, party leader Tino Chrupalla sharply criticized the previous partners from Italy and France. He said on Friday evening at the state party conference in Glauchau, Saxony, that he forbids any interference from the parties of Marine Le Pen and Giorgia Meloni. As Prime Minister in Italy, Meloni stands for more migration and more weapons in the war in Ukraine. “This melonization will not happen with us.” His party will not bend itself in order to become more attractive to others. “For us, German interests always come first.”

On Thursday, the ID parliamentary group expelled all nine AfD MEPs with immediate effect. The decision referred, among other things, to a “series of incidents in which Mr. Maximilian Krah and thus also the German delegation of the group were involved”. These would have damaged the group’s reputation. Previously, among other things, Krah’s statements about the SS had caused sharp criticism. 

Krah comes from Saxony and is the AfD’s top candidate in the European elections at the beginning of June. In view of the massive quarrels, he is no longer appearing in the election campaign. Krah withdrew from the election campaign for the good of the party, said Chrupalla in Glauchau. “I would like to thank Maximilian Krah for that.” He downplayed the turbulence: The party had already faced many crises and this was a “small crisis”.

At its state party conference, the Saxon AfD wants to elect a new state executive board by Sunday and adopt an election program for the state elections in September. At the start, state leader Jörg Urban warned the delegates to refrain from discussions about the quarrels surrounding Krah. “This party conference is the wrong platform to hold discussions about the campaign against our top candidate for the European elections, and is also not suitable for discussing the federal party and its handling of these challenges.”

The AfD state association is viewed by the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a “secure right-wing extremist effort”. 

You can read more about the European elections on the next pages.