Russia is moving its maritime borders with Finland and Estonia on its own initiative. Vladimir Putin is increasingly looking to the Baltic Sea to expand his power at the expense of Europe. A military expert explains the calculation and also makes an appeal to Germany.
There has been rumblings in the Baltic Sea for a long time. The Nordstream pipelines were blown up under mysterious circumstances in 2022 and since last year the GPS signals from aircraft over the sea have been disrupted several times. Always under suspicion: Russia. The latest provocation from the Kremlin, however, is quite blatant. Russia has announced that it will move its maritime border.
The areas affected are the areas around the Kaliningrad exclave and several islands. The shift comes at the expense of Lithuania and Finland. However, the governments of the two countries only found out about the Kremlin decree through Russian media reports; there was apparently initially no official notification.
Markus Reisner, colonel in the Austrian Armed Forces, sees two reasons for the Russian provocations in the Baltic Sea. “On the one hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in creating a geographical advantage in the region,” said the military expert. “The Baltic Sea has historically been a challenge for a long time when it comes to maintaining supremacy.”
This is explained, among other things, by the special location of St. Petersburg – the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet is stationed there. The city is located at the eastern end of the Gulf of Finland. If Estonia and Finland, whose capitals Tallin and Helsinki are further ahead, were to close the passage to the open Baltic Sea, it would be a hard blow for Russia.
To prevent this, the Kremlin is apparently eyeing the Swedish island of Gotland. Its central location offers many military advantages. “Gotland is like a giant aircraft carrier in the Baltic Sea,” explains Reisner.
Sweden is also aware of the strategic relevance of the island. The country’s army chief, Micael Bydén, told the “Editorial Network Germany” in an interview: “Whoever controls Gotland controls the Baltic Sea.” If Putin invades Gotland, he could threaten the NATO countries from the sea. “That would be the end of peace and stability in the Nordic and Baltic regions.”
According to Reisner, it is impossible to say exactly how powerful the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet is. “On the one hand, we hear that the Russians are completely incompetent. On the other hand, the Russians will definitely attack us in a few years. “The truth probably lies in the middle,” believes the military expert. A quick conquest of Gotland is therefore not to be feared – although a lot depends on whether the NATO states can credibly deter Russia with their navies.
Reisner therefore advises more presence in the Baltic Sea. “The German fleet within NATO used to be focused on the Baltic Sea, so there were a whole number of ships there. But today the state of the German navy is different.” While there used to be more than 70 ships, the fleet has now shrunk to 20 ships. Poland and Sweden, for example, have upgraded their fleets again.
For Reisner, more worrying than the military advantages that Russia could create by shifting its borders are the political signals emanating from the action: “After more than two years of war, Russia appears more dominant and more demanding. The Kremlin is showing that it is not only challenged by the situation in Ukraine, but is also making its ambitions more and more clear.”
Putin wants to intimidate and signal that his country is back to its former strength despite all the losses in Ukraine. “So far, Russia has mainly served three narratives: that the stagnating grain exports from Ukraine are leading to migration from Africa to Europe, that Russia can pose a nuclear threat to Europe and that the West will suffer economic damage if it continues to support Ukraine. What is happening now in the Baltic Sea also threatens the West.”
Russia is also relying on hybrid warfare: the airline Finnair had to temporarily suspend its route between Helsinki and Tartu in Estonia because of GPS signals that were allegedly disrupted by Russia. The GPS interference even blocked a flight of British Defense Minister Grant Shapps in March.
In an interview with the “Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland” the Swedish army chief warns of another danger. There are old Russian oil tankers off Gotland. “Russia could cause an environmental disaster right on our doorstep and make it look like an accident. The consequences for the environment would be devastating.” The ships could also be used for eavesdropping and underwater sabotage.
To date, it has not been clearly determined whether Russia was also responsible for blowing up the Nordstream pipelines. Military expert Reisner believes this is irresponsible: “In my view, it must be in the interests of those bordering the Baltic Sea to have a complete picture of the situation and to identify those responsible.” If power or data lines that lie in the sea were also sabotaged, that would be the case Economically damaging Europe.