Nature 02/09/19 Climatic Apocalypse: global warming threatens Russia
According to many experts, Russia is located in those latitudes in which in the foreseeable future we should expect irreversible climate change. And someone says that the climate Apocalypse in our country has begun.
All because of a man
Recently, Norwegian scientists have identified in the Northern part of the Barents sea and troubling developments – the first indication that in this region the Arctic climate system is forced out of the Atlantic. According to experts from the Institute of marine research in tromsø, the decrease in the receipts of fresh melt water from the glaciers will contribute to the emergence of “hot spots” in the Arctic, and this in turn will negatively affect the ecosystem of the region. Norwegian climatologists claim that in its scope, the negative processes will be comparable to those that occurred during the last Ice age.
However, the Russian climatologist Vladimir Semenov is not inclined to exaggerate the scope of possible transformations. According to him, even if it is the possible collapse of the Gulf stream, in Murmansk will come weather Magadan. “It’s a disaster or not? In my opinion, is still no,” says the scientist.
nevertheless, experts say that the climate in the Russian Arctic is gradually changing and the reason for this, first of all, human activities. According to the Director of the program “Climate and energy” world wildlife Fund Russia Alexei Kokorin, if you minimize the human factor, for example, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that catastrophe will be avoided.
Russia heats up
According to the Roshydromet, in recent years, average temperatures in Russia are rising 2.5 times faster than in the whole planet. The trend is alarming. Thus, temperature near the mouth of the Ob river compared to the 1960-ies increased by 6 degrees Celsius. Warming has already led to a sharp ROST the number of ticks in Central Russia, Siberia and the far East. According to experts, the forecasts indicate that in coming decades the situation will only get worse.
High temperatures in the first place will have a negative impact on agriculture. After a brief increase yields, which said agriculture Minister Nikolai Fyodorov will come more stingy on the gifts of gardens and fields years. However, on assurances of scientists, such droughts are expected in the countries of Central Asia have not expected. However, the aridity of the climate in the next 10 years can contribute to lower yields in major grain-producing regions of Russia. According to economists ‘ calculations, the losses can reach 15-20% of the gross grain harvest.
It would be presumptuous to think that natural anomalies inevitable in Moscow, which as it sounds is located in a favorable from the point of view of climate the place. Senior researcher of the Department of meteorology and climatology of Geographical faculty of Moscow state University Pavel Toropov believes that in 50-100 years, when over a transition period of global warming, the Moscow region will resemble the woody steppe of Kursk and Orel regions with arid summers and mild winters. Thus, according to the scientist, neither Moscow nor the no-snow area will remain. Summer will be very dry, but not enough to grow apricots and peaches.
Costs can not be avoided
At the present time, climate change in Russia is already leading to an increase of dangerous meteorological phenomena of hurricanes, downpours, floods, fires. Over the last 20 years their number has doubled. According to the MOE, about 60% of Russians live in areas where factors affecting weather elements can cause substantial damage to population and infrastructure.
To date, the annual economic losses from emergency situations caused by climatic anomalies, Russian specialists estimated at 30-60 billion rubles. In the future, according to experts, the cost of liquidtion of consequences of natural disasters may rise to 675-900 billion rubles per year, which is equivalent to 1.5-2% of gross domestic product.
“given all the worsening climate impacts should be structured and urban politics in Russia, – said the Director of the Center for urban studies of the Moscow school of management SKOLKOVO Ksenia Mokrushina. – We need to start thinking about climate-sustainable architecture”. This course will entail additional costs, both from local and from the Federal budget.
current Threats
In the center of monitoring and forecasting of emergencies “Antistikhia” concerned that caused by warming, degradation of permafrost affects the flood situation in large parts of the territories of Russia. At risk in the next decade, scientists enter the territory of the Arkhangelsk, Murmansk regions, Republic of Komi, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous district, Krasnoyarsk region and Yakutia.
permafrost covers about 63% of the territory of Russia and its destruction threatens big troubles for the country. French scientists predict that in the next 35 years the thawing of permafrost in Siberia may lead to the frequent collapse of residential and industrial buildings, as reported by Le Figaro. At the request of the Ministry of emergency situations, the degradation of frozen soil primarily affects the stability of various structures – residential buildings, industrial facilities, pipelines, power lines, runways.
According to the emergencies Ministry, the southern border of permafrost in recent decades has shifted North by an average of 60 kilometers, and in the next 25-30 years, the area of permafrost in Russia may shrink by 10-18%. Domestic experts are seriously concerned that the continued melting of the permafrost is able to destabilize transportation, building and energy infrastructure in cold regions of Russia.
in addition, the melting of the permafrost releases huge amounts of methane, which accumulate in the atmosphere, only reinforces the greenhouse effect and accelerates global warming.
Taras Repin
Source:
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