The debate about Ukraine’s right to self-defense is coming to a head. While the USA, France and Germany now consider the attack on Russia with Western weapons to be justified, others are warning against it. However, it would make military sense for Ukraine.
Has the dam now broken? Following the US State Department’s proposal to allow Ukraine to attack Russian targets on Russian territory, US President Joe Biden has now approved this. French President Emmanuel Macron also spoke out in favor of allowing Ukraine to attack military targets in Russia with Western weapons during his state visit to Germany.
And Germany is following suit: On Friday, the German government granted Ukraine permission to use weapons supplied by Germany against military targets in Russia. This was announced by spokesman Steffen Hebestreit in Berlin on Friday.
Most recently, SPD foreign policy expert Michael Roth had urged that Ukraine be allowed to use the weapons supplied by Germany and other Western states against targets on Russian territory. “I strongly advise following NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who has made such a proposal,” Roth said on Deutschlandfunk on Thursday.
The debate has been in full swing for days. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is happily threatening retaliation. Although he has not yet openly threatened a nuclear strike, he has warned the West of the possibility of a nuclear war in the event of a direct confrontation with Russia.
From a military perspective, the expanded target clearance by the Western allies is of great importance for Ukraine. Military and also militarily used civilian targets in Russia, such as oil depots, airports, energy facilities, and railway junctions, could be destroyed.
But “the Ukrainians don’t have the weapons for a major war in the Russian hinterland,” says military expert Ralph Thiele to FOCUS online. And the West cannot supply them for the time being. However, the Ukrainian armed forces could score some spectacular and high-profile points, says Thiele. “But nothing more.”
Is this why Putin’s regime is faltering? “Not really! The bear is dancing at the front,” says the former colonel in the German army. “That’s why the focus of Ukrainian offensive measures should be on everything that has a positive effect on events at the front.”
With regard to “Russian territory,” this primarily concerns the region near Kharkiv. Russian artillery, combat helicopters, combat aircraft and electronic warfare forces operate there from Russia, explains Thiele. “Fighting them, including the bases, makes sense, as do the deployment areas for Russian reinforcements and the associated logistics.”
And Putin’s threatening gestures? An exercise of his non-strategic nuclear forces, announced at the beginning of May, is currently underway. The Kremlin says this is a reaction to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine.
But how one perceives all this sabre-rattling is a question of perspective, says Thiele. “With nuclear weapons, he is showing the West his instruments of torture, which he will only use when he gets into trouble.”
Less visible is its deployment in hybrid warfare. “The West still has a weak eye here and occasionally looks at individual aspects such as disinformation or cyber attacks, but not the many facets of hybrid threats in context.”
Putin is aiming for the implosion of entire states and societies and has largely completed his preparations for this. He has already tested individual measures. Even with the current weapons decision, it is clear to the expert: “The war in the gray zone has now begun here too,” said Thiele.
SPD member Roth has already attempted to dispel the fear expressed by many opponents of the release that this would cross a red line that would turn NATO states into warring parties, on Deutschlandfunk.
“The red line is international law, this line will not be crossed,” he stressed. If Ukraine, for example, attacks weapons depots in Russia, this is part of Ukraine’s right to self-defense against Russian aggression. “There is only one person who is escalating, and that is Vladimir Putin.”
The importance of releasing Western weapons is demonstrated not least by the events of the past few weeks in Kharkiv, says Roth. There, Ukraine had to “watch for almost four weeks” as Russia prepared for an attack.