Ten days before election Sunday, the CDU/CSU has a good chance of becoming the strongest force in Germany in a European election. According to a new survey, the Union is at 29 percent. Behind them, an exciting three-way battle is developing.
If there were European elections on Sunday, the Union would be the strongest force.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which has not yet taken part in a European election, would currently receive 6 percent. All other parties would receive 12 percent (2019: 10.7 percent). This was the result of the representative pre-election survey conducted by infratest dimap among 1,515 eligible voters for the European elections for ARD-DeutschlandTREND from Monday to Wednesday of this week.
This survey is expressly not a forecast, but rather a reflection of the political mood for the current week. The Sunday question measures current voting tendencies and not actual voting behavior. It determines an interim status in the voting population’s opinion-forming process, which is only completed on election Sunday. Conclusions about the election outcome are therefore only possible to a limited extent.
The final phase of the election campaign is also very important, with its targeted approach to undecided and tactical voters. Currently, one in six eligible voters does not rule out changing their party preference. A good one in four currently tends not to vote or has not yet shown any inclination towards a party. A good half of eligible voters say they have already made their voting decision.
There is a shift in the issues that will determine the outcome of the election compared to the European elections five years ago. Given the changed threat situation, peacekeeping is more important to voters, at 26 percent ( 4 compared to May 2019). Almost one in four voters (23; 3) want to focus on social security issues. The issue of immigration has also gained in importance (17; 5). In contrast, climate and environmental protection, the number one election issue in 2019, has lost a lot of importance for voters. Five years ago, 23 percent still attributed importance to this issue in their voting decision; currently, the figure is 14 percent. At 13 percent ( 3), economic growth plays the biggest role for about the same number of people this time.
Interest in the European elections has increased since the beginning of the month: 62 percent (13) express very strong or strong interest, 36 percent (-12) have less or no interest in the upcoming election.
Four out of ten German citizens currently associate advantages for Germany with EU membership (41 percent; May 2019: 46 percent), while 19 percent see the disadvantages as more important (May 2019: 14 percent). For a third, the advantages and disadvantages balance each other out (May 2019: 37 percent).
48 percent currently favor deeper European integration with the transfer of further powers to the EU level, compared to 55 percent five years ago. One in seven German citizens (14 percent) still wants to maintain the current level of integration. 30 percent (2019: 26 percent) support a transfer of powers back to the member states.
Ursula von der Leyen has been President of the European Commission since 2019. A further term in office, as supported by the European People’s Party for the period after the European elections, has met with a mixed response among eligible voters in Germany. 42 percent would be in favor of a further term in office, including majorities from the ranks of the Union, SPD and Greens. The same number of eligible voters (41 percent) are opposed to another term for von der Leyen as Commission President.
Survey data
– Population: People entitled to vote in the European elections aged 16 and over in Germany
– Number of cases: 1,515 respondents
– Survey period: May 27 – May 29, 2024
– Survey method: Random-based telephone and online survey