you have been warned Donald Trump. The adviser to the US President him that the damage to the American economy would be catastrophic, he should get Serious. He nevertheless remained with his threat to close the border to Mexico, as a last resort against illegal immigration and smuggling. Last year, Trump wanted to build in the dispute over the financing of his wall with such a scenario, pressure. But these days he seems to be so far: this week he does not want to close, in whole or in “large parts” of the border, if Mexico stops all Migration in the North – the President has repeated this Ultimatum in the past few days, multiple times. From the White house said on Tuesday officially, a possible closure will not checked, even if it was “our first choice”. The Mexican foreign Minister, Marcelo Ebrard believes, after discussions with US representatives, the United States had “no intention” to close the border. But according to US media reports, Trump rates some of his advisors even the Wake, in spite of the economic consequences. Their Argument: such A dramatic step to bring finally the necessary attention for the crisis at the border in the South.
1.700.000.000 Dollar value of the daily trade between the United States and Mexico.
The closure of the border would be, in fact, a more drastic intervention, the two economies are closely intertwined. Mexico is the third largest trading partner of the United States, China and Canada. The United States is imported, according to the UN International Trade Center in the year 2018, the goods for almost 350 billion dollars from Mexico, Goods to the value of 265 billion dollars came from Mexico to the United States. A daily basis are traded between the two countries in the average freight for about $ 1.7 billion, estimates the US chamber of Commerce, so that even short disturbances may have in the goods a big impact – a possible closure of the border, the chamber of Commerce called, therefore, a “total economic debacle”.
120.000 cars are handled on average every day alone at the border crossing of San Ysidro, between the United States and Mexico.
the consequences of even short-term interruptions in place, it helps to look at the border crossing at San Ysidro in San Diego on the U.S. side and in Tijuana, Mexico: 120.000 cars are handled daily on average, of 6,000 Trucks to deliver Goods in one or the other direction, and 63,000 pedestrians cross the border, many Mexicans working in the U.S. border region.
In November 2018, the lock the U.S. government these are the busiest Transition in the Western hemisphere, after it came to clashes with migrants from Central America, who had tried to enter forcibly over the border in the United States. Five hours it took for the escalation was under control and the Transition has been re-opened. The chamber of Commerce of San Ysidro estimates that the local economy in the U.S. border region were alone and lost, this short block is around 5.3 million dollars in revenue.
infographic: Where is the border between Mexico and the USA is
100 km
map
Los Angeles
Pacific
SAN DIEGO
Tijuana
USA
Yuma
To 1,130 km in length, fences, or other barriers stand (red)
cars jam at the border crossing in Tijuana
Phoenix
Mexico
TuCSon
There are 48 border crossings between the U.S. and Mexico
Rio Grande
metal fence at the border in Nogales
Ciudad Juárez
Chihuahua
The natural history of the Rio Grande, the boundary line is determined and makes it difficult to continuous Monitoring
Eagle Pass
San Antonio
border crossing in Laredo, Texas,
Reynosa
Houston
Gulf of Mexico
100 km
Los Angeles
map
Pacific ocean
SAN DIEGO
Tijuana
United States
Yuma
cars jam at the border crossing in Tijuana
To just 1.130 km of border fencing or other barriers are already in place (red colored)
Phoenix
Mexico
TuCSon
There are 48 border crossings between the U.S. and Mexico
metal fence at the border in Nogales
Rio Grande
Ciudad Juárez
Chihuahua
The natural history of the Rio Grande defines the border line and makes it difficult to continuous Monitoring
Eagle Pass
San Antonio
border crossing in Laredo, Texas,
Reynosa
Houston
Gulf of Mexico
+ Complete border show sources: Center for Investigative Reporting, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, OpenStreetMap. Maps: Google, INEGI, OpenStreetMap. Graphics: Julian Stahnke
The U.S. chamber of Commerce believes that a complete closure of the border with Mexico, could threaten five million jobs in the United States. Not only affected the local economy, would suffer a variety of companies importing Mexican products. Many of the manufacturers of various products in the U.S. have established integrated production chains, the Mexican supply depend.
As an example, the trade is called the chamber, especially the car industry, the Trump supposedly at heart. Accordingly, the industry quite well the production had doubled in the past ten years, almost 50 percent more US citizens are working today, compared to 2011, in the factories. The success-based but, at least in part to the fact that parts and products can be easily sent over the border. More than a quarter of bilateral trade between Mexico and the USA is accounted for by the automotive industry, typical components of the country move eight times, until they are finally installed.
Up to 1,000,000,000 dollars in revenue could be lost to the US economy every day, if the border is closed.
How big is the burden on the US economy would be exactly, is difficult to predict. A note on the Dimension could provide a study by the University of Southern California, 2011. The researchers had simulated the impact of a complete closure of all borders of the United States. Everything is tight, for a year, so the economy would be cut in half of the US almost. It helps hardly at all, because very many factors influence the gross domestic product and it is not clear how far-reaching Trump would implement its threat of closing the borders, how long have you maintained dignity, and whether there were accompanying measures. The scientists came to the result: Remained Oil possible, and the taking of U.S. citizens falling real wages, which would lead to the loss of economic power more likely at 11 percent. And as I said: in the case of closure of all borders for a year. For a complete closure of the Mexican border, such as Trump threatens you, experts estimate at least hundreds of millions of dollars that would be lost, occasionally every day of a billion dollars.
How quickly problems are visible, which brings each disorder at the border, you only have to look back in the year 2001. Immediately after the September 11 attacks. September, the US government has not closed the borders in the North and the South completely, but occasionally a particularly strict controls for everything and everyone. After one day, the wait times were for the long queues lined-up vehicles for more than 12 hours. And within a few days, companies are missing the big car, the normally just-in-time delivered parts. The closure of the border would certainly have an impact as quickly and sustainable on the production.
Nearly 50 percent of the imported vegetables in the U.S. come from Mexico, and 40 percent of the fruit.
but Above all, the Americans would notice after a closing of the border soon, that something is missing. Avocados, for example. Almost half of the imported vegetables in the U.S. comes from Mexico and about 40 percent of the imported fruits. As for the Avocados, are likely to depend on the Americans currently almost completely from the neighboring country: they are also grown in California, where they are mostly but not for a few weeks and make up only a very small part of the market. Also tomatoes, cucumbers and many other fresh products will be introduced for the majority from Mexico. Although there are Alternatives, but the Import from other countries, change is likely to make it from today to tomorrow. In the American super markets have to adjust to the customers on increasing prices.
Despite all of this, undoubtedly, negative effects of a closure of the border these days seems to be possible. Trump is ready to resort to harsh means to prove his ability to act. Whether you reach the desired goal is another question, perhaps even beside the point for the President. In addition to the threat to Mexico, he has announced recently, the aid to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Thus, it weakens the fight against the causes for which so many Central Americans trying to make their way in the direction of the United States. In the long run, he will not defuse the situation at the Mexican border, whether it remains open or not.