Heat pump sales in Germany are expected to decrease to 200,000 units this year, a significant drop from 350,000 units in 2023. The German Heat Pump Association (BWP) attributes this 45 percent decline to consumer uncertainty and a lack of awareness about subsidy schemes. Despite this decrease, the BWP predicts that heat pump sales will increase to 260,000 units by 2025 and is urging politicians to create better market conditions to support this growth.
Heating buildings accounts for approximately 15 percent of Germany’s CO2 emissions, highlighting the need for the country’s 40 million homes to transition to climate-neutral heating technologies like heat pumps in order to achieve its goal of net-zero emissions by 2045. However, the high installation costs of heat pumps have been a major point of contention, leading to debates and compromises within the government.
Martin Sabel, the managing director of BWP, emphasized the importance of solidifying Germany’s position as a leader in climate-friendly heat pump technology. He expressed concerns that political disagreements over the financial aspects of transitioning to climate-neutral heating could have negative implications for the German economy, which relies on stability and predictability.
The BWP has outlined two scenarios for the uptake of heat pumps in the coming years. In a “business-as-usual” scenario, the increasing costs of traditional energy sources would drive more installations of heat pumps, with projections reaching 500,000 units by 2030. However, this level of adoption would not be sufficient to meet climate targets in the building sector.
On the other hand, in an “ambitious” scenario, the new German government could take proactive steps to support the widespread adoption of heat pumps. This could involve increasing subsidies and reducing electricity prices through tax cuts and adjustments to grid fees. If these measures are implemented, annual heat pump sales could reach 500,000 units by 2027, significantly accelerating progress towards climate goals.
It is clear that the heat pump industry plays a crucial role in Germany’s transition to a more sustainable and environmentally friendly future. By investing in this technology and creating supportive policies, the country can not only reduce its carbon footprint but also stimulate economic growth and innovation in the renewable energy sector.