After President Biden decided not to seek re-election and threw his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party’s nomination, many are now wondering about her chances in the upcoming election and how she would fare against former President Donald J. Trump.
Recent polls show that Ms. Harris is trailing Mr. Trump by just two percentage points on average nationally, with 46 percent of the vote compared to his 48 percent. This is actually an improvement over Mr. Biden’s standing in the polls when he was running, as he was behind Mr. Trump by three percentage points, with 47 percent compared to 44 percent.
In swing state polls conducted before Mr. Biden made his announcement and before the attempt on Mr. Trump’s life, Ms. Harris was only down by one percentage point in Pennsylvania in a hypothetical matchup against Mr. Trump. In Virginia, she was leading by a more comfortable margin of five percentage points. These results are noteworthy as Mr. Biden only had a very slim lead in Virginia.
Ms. Harris seems to be resonating more with Black voters, younger voters, and women in these polls, which are all crucial demographics for Democratic success in the upcoming election. Interestingly, Mr. Biden appeared to be losing support among these groups, which could be a cause for concern.
While Ms. Harris was initially trailing Mr. Biden in polls back in April, she has since closed the gap and gained ground, showing a promising trend for her campaign. Additionally, a growing number of Democrats have expressed a desire for Mr. Biden to step aside, with nearly two-thirds of them indicating in a recent poll that they would prefer a different candidate to represent the party in the election.
Ruth Igielnik, a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes the results, has provided valuable insights on the shifting dynamics of the presidential race. Her expertise sheds light on the changing sentiments within the Democratic Party and the evolving landscape of the upcoming election.